Fortune Magazine covered the recent
announcement that
iTunes has crossed the 5 billion song download mark. "It took Apple (
AAPL) nearly three years to sell its first billion songs (Feb 23, 2006), ten months to sell its second billion (Jan. 6, 2007), seven months to sell its third (July 31, 2007) five and a half to sell its fourth (Jan. 15, 2008), and five months to sell its fifth (June 19, 2008)." Moreover, the report states that 50,000 movies are purchased or rented daily. The apps store has been an even bigger hit, propelling sales of
iPhones and the
iPod Touch.
But Apple claims the iTunes store operates at just break even (though other reports suggest
10% to
30% margins, according to Fortune), including the movies and apps store.
Worse for the musician, the artists royalties for the less expensive digital albums reduce the price on which the artist's income is based.
So the artists need to take advantage of iTunes,
Napster, and other online services while controlling more of their own marketing and revenue. The elements for this new model are just appearing on the horizon.
First, there are the sell-thru services,
CD Baby,
Tunecore and
ReverbNation. Each provides artists the ability to move their music directly through the major digital outlets. The pricing models all provide a greater return to artists than the artists would receive working with traditional record companies. But access to the audience is not nearly enough. Artists need the promotion and marketing services provided by record companies to the top of their roster.
The answer to the promotion may come from new tools in the
semantic web. Google provides simple, word-based alerts, but those don't have predictive power. Instead, services from
The Echo Nest, a music recommendation platform built to read the music and the music press like a musician. In addition
Band Metrics builds a media analysis - social networks, blog, YouTube, and the related music press. Both these services fall into the vaguely defined (but critically important) semantic web.
The semantic model utilizes algorithms to "read" the web, including non-indexed information, develop predictive models and track interests. It is a powerful tool to develop behaviorial advertising and allow companies to know what you want to buy around the same time you do.
So it should come as no surprise that the next piece of the new music model is advertising-embedded music.
ReverbNation has jumped into these waters with its "
Sponsored Songs" program, "a new online music distribution program that will give music fans access to unlimited free song downloads from 1,000 artists. Through this innovative pilot program, a passive advertisement is embedded alongside the album cover art that is seen by music fans when they play the song on their computer, portable device or phone. The advertising in Sponsored Songs travels with the fans wherever they enjoy their music - following them onto the subway, going with them to the gym, and showing up at the party - giving the advertiser frequent and regular brand exposure, and the fan free music."
Windows is the first advertiser to participate in this program. The 'free' music is at
www.MySpace.com/Windows.
The advertiser-based song support makes good business sense for advertisers. Songs are a low-cost distribution tool for the advertising - far lower than television or motion picture product placement. The movement of music in peer-to-peer systems, social networks and on YouTube makes the advertising inherently viral and trackable. And the pricing can already be modeled on a per-copy basis. Music fans may not like the advertising-based music, but for now, at least, the ad-based music is just one option.
A robust music industry free of the traditional record labels needs some powerful marketing tools. The semantic web tools available to artists or independent labels will allow them to target the interested audience directly. Since the semantic web provides such a powerful tool for advertising, it is inevitable that as the semantic web tools improve, the advertisers will become increasingly interested in music as its delivery device.
So the new shape of the music industry is shaping up. Let's just be sure that the artists continue to be paid.